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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to GB 19, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.60 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model