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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 62

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) (Punt formation) 19-A.Thielen left end to GB 21 for 41 yards (55-A.Mulumba).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.76 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model