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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Green Bay Packers
4th & 5 at the 40
Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 6
What Actually Happened
(:52) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 89-J.Jones.
The Three Options
GO
+0.52 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.49 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.45 EP
KICK
-0.06 EP
- 45% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
- 55% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT
+0.08 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
