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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to MIN 23, Center-59-R.Lovato. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 36 for 13 yards (47-J.Ryan). PENALTY on MIN-51-E.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model