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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 3-B.Walsh 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model