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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 3 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 18-R.Cobb to MIN 33 for 4 yards (29-X.Rhodes) [97-E.Griffen].

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.06 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model