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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 25

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.84 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model