Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Green Bay Packers 13

(1:07) 18-J.Locke punts 36 yards to GB 37, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 42 for 5 yards (34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.31 EP
46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model