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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 13 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(:01) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 89-J.Jones (55-A.Barr).

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +0.84 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.04 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.02 EP