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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 10

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 2-M.Crosby 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +3.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.48 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 10, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP