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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(:33) 18-J.Locke punts 52 yards to GB 16, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde to GB 26 for 10 yards (94-J.Trattou). PENALTY on GB-83-J.Janis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP