4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 2-D.Butler punts 39 yards to SEA 22, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 44 for 22 yards (2-D.Butler). PENALTY on SEA-25-R.Sherman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.90 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model