Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 2-D.Butler punts 56 yards to SEA 18, Center-82-M.Leach. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at ARI 16 for 66 yards (22-T.Jefferson). PENALTY on ARI-10-B.Golden, Face Mask (15 Yards), 8 yards, enforced at ARI 16.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model