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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 22

Seattle Seahawks 30 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(:32) 4-S.Hauschka 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.68 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model