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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 36 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 9-J.Ryan punts 45 yards to ARI 12, Center-49-C.Gresham. 14-J.Nelson to ARI 10 for -2 yards (91-C.Marsh).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.56 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 57, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 17, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP