4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 12

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Seattle Seahawks 36

What Actually Happened

(5:25) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short left intended for 12-Jo.Brown INTERCEPTED by 35-D.Shead at SEA 0. 35-D.Shead pushed ob at SEA 40 for 40 yards (70-B.Massie).

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 22, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.68 EP