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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 36 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 7-T.Jackson pass short right to 17-K.Smith to ARI 17 for 17 yards (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.07 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP