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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 34

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 4-S.Hauschka 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.63 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 34, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP