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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 36

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:25) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker pass incomplete deep middle to 15-B.Marquez (10-B.Ellington).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.08 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model