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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Los Angeles Rams 13

What Actually Happened

(:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to LA 34, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.62 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model