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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 34

Los Angeles Rams 16 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(1:18) 4-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.40 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model