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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:35) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to LA 13, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model