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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 39

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass incomplete deep right to 82-T.Smith (22-T.Johnson) [99-A.Donald].

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model