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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 16 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.34 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model