4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 20

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 9-P.Dawson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.35 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model