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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 77

Los Angeles Rams 16 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 26, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 77, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model