Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

(5:37) 5-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to LA 5, Center-86-K.Nelson. 11-T.Austin to LA 11 for 6 yards (49-B.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.48 EP
65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model