Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

(11:51) 5-J.Schum punts 39 yards to CAR 40, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 27-R.McClain.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.39 EP
64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model