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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 9-G.Gano 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model