Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 81

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 17

(2:51) 5-J.Schum punts 33 yards to CAR 48, Center-48-A.DePaola. 27-R.McClain to TB 49 for 3 yards (85-E.Spencer).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model