Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 5-J.Schum punts 41 yards to CAR 30, Center-48-A.DePaola. 27-R.McClain to CAR 32 for 2 yards (89-R.Shepard). TB-89-R.Shepard was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.04 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model