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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 38

What Actually Happened

(5:22) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 84-C.Brate to CAR 42 for 10 yards (27-R.McClain).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model