4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 21

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:32) 10-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.75 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model