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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.96 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP