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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 91

Tennessee Titans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 40, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-Q.Bray to IND 42 for 2 yards (52-S.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.49 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 91, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.52 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 48, worth -2.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP