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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 44

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 1-P.McAfee punts 29 yards to TEN 15, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-35-A.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model