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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 1-P.McAfee punts 58 yards to TEN 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-H.Douglas pushed ob at TEN 41 for 9 yards (36-D.Herron).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.77 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 90, worth -5.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 47, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model