Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 1-P.McAfee punts 44 yards to TEN 32, Center-45-M.Overton. 83-H.Douglas MUFFS catch, and recovers at TEN 33. 83-H.Douglas to TEN 33 for no gain (32-C.Anderson). TEN-83-H.Douglas was injured during the play. PENALTY on TEN-57-J.Staples, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.45 EP
58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model