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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(9:02) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model