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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 24 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 33, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-Q.Bray ran ob at 50 for 17 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 84, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 42, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model