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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 80

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 1-P.McAfee punts 35 yards to TEN 45, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-32-C.Anderson.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.14 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model