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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 60

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to IND 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-Q.Bray to IND 8 for -1 yards (16-T.McBride).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.74 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 60, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 19, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model