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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 4-J.Berry punts 44 yards to CIN 19, Center-60-G.Warren. 19-B.Tate to CIN 29 for 10 yards (55-A.Moats).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 63, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model