Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 69

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(8:31) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 32, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 34 for 2 yards (37-C.Lewis-Harris; 26-J.Shaw).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.21 EP
63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model