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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 36, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 24-A.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model