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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.60 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP