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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-C.Harris. 84-A.Brown to PIT 19 for 6 yards (47-P.Dawson).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.97 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP