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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 17

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 9-C.Boswell 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model