Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 11 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

(8:38) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to PIT 18, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model