Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 58

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

(11:18) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to CIN 13, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model